Microsoft simply has to get things right this time.

The early buzz around Windows 7, the next version of the software giant’s most important product, seems to have been positive. This is just as well, since Vista proved to be such a huge disappointment among business users.

Microsoft may have touted impressive sales for the most recent version of Windows, but much of that seems to have come from the inevitable purchases from consumers, most of whom have little choice but to use the system pre-loaded on their home PCs.

Among enterprise users, Vista adoption has been something of a damp squib. Companies whose regular refresh cycle and software licensing deals made a Vista upgrade relatively inexpensive and timely were probably the only ones to make the jump.

Certainly Vista offers few advantages over Windows XP in terms of business benefits. A whizzy new interface ­ that hardly anyone uses because it is so resource-intensive ­ and better multimedia features are not top of the list for many IT managers. And given the problems with application compatibility that many people experienced, it just became an upgrade that IT departments could do without.

Microsoft says it has listened to the criticism, and Windows 7 is the result. The emphasis at first glance seems to be more on business productivity and easier manageability.

But looking further ahead, what will Windows 8 be like ­ and will it even exist, other than as a minor functional upgrade? Critics point to the unwieldy nature of the product, and the fast-growing code base is at odds with the trend to strip complexity out of the user device ­ be it PC, laptop or mobile ­ and put more of the applications on the web.

The newly named Azure, a cloud computing infrastructure, gives perhaps the best idea of where Windows will go in the future, as a hybrid PC/cloud environment.

But for Microsoft to ensure the continued commitment of enterprise users to Windows in the long term, it simply has to be lucky seven this time.

There is little doubt that software will be the biggest driver of technological innovation and business change in the years ahead.

But what will the future commercial model be for how software suppliers make the money they need for continued research and development (R&D)?

Where once hardware was the main force behind IT development as Moore’s Law dictated the pace of progress, today it is the capabilities provided by software that powers the web and the mobile world, as well as global competitiveness and productivity.

Vendors have survived profitably on the traditional model of selling licences -­ not always to the satisfaction of customers ­ but the process has worked.

The first challenge came from open source ­ “free” software available to anyone, although the technical complexity and need for service and support have been hurdles to overcome.

Nonetheless, now that such a normally conservative sector as schools is turning to open source, its legitimacy in the corporate world cannot be questioned.

However, the buzzword of the moment is cloud computing, a new term that encompasses technologies such as software-as-a-service, grids and virtualisation to offer an alternative route to access applications hosted somewhere out there on the internet.

Such software is rarely purchased using conventional licensing. Some is free, some is paid for on a per-user, per month basis. Look at the biggest software supplier to see the way things are changing. Microsoft is struggling to adapt its Windows and Office-driven income to the demands of the internet ­ a failed attempt (so far) to purchase Yahoo, billions of R&D dollars going into web-hosted applications, and speculation about a new internet-based operating system, codenamed Midori, that could one day replace Windows.

For IT managers, the future of software purchasing may be more unclear than ever, but your options are increasing, and the days of restrictive and often punitive licensing agreements may be coming to an end.

It has been a while since Computing reported on vendors making mandatory and unexpected changes to their commercial terms to the financial detriment of customers.

Searching back through our archives you would find plenty of examples ­ – Microsoft and the controversy over its Software Assurance scheme; Oracle used to be perpetually under fire for its licensing programmes; there were unexpected charges when companies outsourced non-transferable software licences; or even back in the big mainframe days when contractual small print seemed to lead to unfathomable reasons for price hikes.

More recently, there has been much debate over the impact of virtualisation on products historically priced on a per-processor basis.

But in general, these days IT suppliers are much more sensitive to such commercial criticisms, and the rise in active and vocal user groups has helped lead to a more conciliatory process of introducing new terms and conditions.

Yet software licensing, support fees and maintenance pricing remain among the biggest potential causes of fallout in the buyer-supplier relationship. Experienced IT decision-makers still roll their eyes to the heavens when the subject is broached.

For IT managers carefully scrutinising vendor invoices, now is a good time to be wary.

Although most of the biggest suppliers will be insulated from the worst of the current economic uncertainty, if the crunch starts to hurt you can bet a bean-counter somewhere in even your friendliest vendor will be looking to see where they can accrue a few extra pounds.

For any supplier under pressure, the desire to extract every penny from you will become even more acute.

In successful IT companies, when the marketing blurb talks about “partnerships”, that is usually the goal, and many are good at delivering on such a promise.

But ultimately, it remains a commercial relationship, and tough times can lead to unpleasant measures. For IT managers looking to control their own costs, be sure to keep a close eye on those invoices.

By this time next week you will almost certainly be fed up of hearing that Bill Gates is leaving Microsoft.

But you will forgive us, we hope, for marking his leaving in this column ­ – after all, Computing has written more words than most about the world’s biggest software company since it was formed.

Clearly Gates’s departure to focus on his charitable foundation and his new description as the world’s greatest philanthropist is a significant milestone.

When he shuts his office door for the last time, the man who has arguably done more than any other person to help create the technology revolution will be a technologist no more.

So goodbye Bill, and thanks for all the bugs.

History will undoubtedly be kinder to the Microsoft founder than his critics have been, and regardless of what anyone may think of the company’s dominance, his contribution has been without parallel.

The real issue for IT managers, though, is not Gates’ past, but Microsoft’s future.

Nothing will change when the great man walks away from the day job in Redmond.

The empire he built will not come crashing down overnight. The research labs will not be short of new ideas. But there are more question marks over the direction of the company than ever before.

Most experts see a steady decline in the importance of Windows as we know it ­ – an increasingly bloated operating system that drives ever-more energy-hungry computers. At some point there will have to be a fundamental rethink of its role.

MS Office, the great cash cow, similarly faces emerging competition from free rivals that may one day threaten its dominance of the desktop.

And Microsoft’s abortive attempt to buy Yahoo shows the company has still to determine its future shape as the world moves increasingly to the internet.

Nobody’s IT strategy will change because Bill Gates is no longer at Microsoft.

But future IT strategies are likely to take a very different approach to its products.

What does your long-term internet strategy look like? Do you even have one? If you don’t, it is hardly surprising, when the online world remains in such a state of constant and unpredictable change.

The one thing you can say with any confidence about the web and its future impact on business is that nobody really knows what is going to happen ­ and there are few reliable sources that you can count on for predictions worthy enough to build your company strategy around.

Just look at the debates and battles that are going on at the moment.

In one corner, Microsoft is slugging it out with Yahoo. The search firm is trying to play tag, looking for partners to prevent it falling into the clutches of the software giant. But so far, few are willing to take as big a financial bet as Redmond.

In another corner, the online advertising firms are trying to carve out a way to use our personal surfing habits to make more money without infringing our privacy ­ and often making a complete hash of it.

Elsewhere in the ring are ISPs and content providers arguing about who pays for the rise in bandwidth-hungry services such as video ­- the success of the BBC iPlayer leading to the latest round of finger-pointing.

And then there is the software industry, agonising over the growing popularity of hosted business applications such as Salesforce.com or Google Apps, and how the rise of these low-cost ­ or even free ­ online services will affect their lucrative licensing models.

Then you run out of corners, and stuck in the middle find the poor internet user ­ - both individual and corporate -­ not sure which way to turn.

For IT leaders, the only certainty is that the internet will, of course, be central to your plans. But the companies that want to make the most of the oppo rtunities online need to stay innovative, agile, and ready to respond rapidly ­as the often-conflicting forces determining the future play out their costly games.

The rise of consumer technology and its impact on business has become a growing theme for IT managers.

The increasingly tech-savvy population has different expectations of the way it relates to companies and government, as employees, customers and citizens.

This represents a historic turnaround.

In the past, new technologies have confounded consumers, and adoption of the latest innovations has slowed or sometimes died as potential users retreat from perceived complexity or just simple techno-fear.

But now, consumer demand is starting to push ahead of the ability of the IT community to deliver the technology people want.

Smartcards are such an obvious way to improve the passenger experience on public transport. London’s Oyster card has already shown how it can make travel cheaper and more convenient, and offer the potential for new services, such as the combined travel and payment card launched by Barclaycard last year.

But for once, an important technology is being rolled out before the companies that support it are ready.

The first national smartcard-based transport scheme, to allow senior citizens free bus travel anywhere in the country, will be unable to exploit its advanced features because hardly any bus operators support it.

Is this a sign of things to come? As we all turn to new technology in our everyday lives ­ for communication, entertainment, education and more ­ the national appetite for IT seems only to be expanding. Through products such as mobile phones, iPods and Nintendo’s Wii, technology has become a fashion item for all ages.

This presents huge challenges ­ and opportunities ­ for everyone working in IT.

Imagine if user resistance to new projects turned into an enthusiastic demand for more. How soon before companies will steal a march on their rivals by beating them to the use of a new technology to create greater customer loyalty and profit?

 IT managers in every organisation need to respond to the changing reality of a consumer-led technology revolution.